On the morning after Universal’s “Oppenheimer” won seven Oscars — to none for Netflix‘s “Maestro” — Oppenheimer is helping out Netflix after all. No, we don’t mean the Cillian Murphy movie.
A brokerage and investment bank named Oppenheimer on Monday raised its price target for Netflix stock (NFLX) to $725 — up from its prior target of $615. Netflix shares jumped Monday morning, though the victory was brief: NFLX closed out the day down a hair. Hey, it could have been worse.
That other Oppenheimer (& Co.) could help Netflix more than another Oscar would: an Academy Award is only plated in gold. (They’re solid bronze.) Shares of Netflix have already been on a hot streak: year-to-date, +28 percent. Over 12 months, they’ve more than doubled in value.
Shares of NFLX have never hit $700, though they came pretty close in October 2021. And then the big “Netflix Correction,” in which Netflix shockingly reported subscriber losses, happened. The moment shook the streaming industry, and led Wall Street to start valuing profitability over growth when grading streamers.
Oppenheimer’s projection of $725 is quite bullish — NFLX shares currently trade for about $600.
Analysts led by Jason Helfstein believe Netflix’s Average Revenue per Member (ARM; ARPU for most) will continue to ramp up in 2024 as it captures more people through its “paid sharing” program, colloquially known as its password-sharing crackdown. Helfstein sees Netflix adding another 17 million U.S. subscribers over the next three years, ultimately capturing 60 percent of the 100 million users Netflix initially said were mooching off the service.
Netflix currently has just over 260 million global subscribers, and last quarter it had its best Q4 growth ever, adding over 13 million subscribers. (Wall Street expected it would add 8 million.) The company is aggressively pushing the growth of its ad-supported tier, which generates higher ARM for Netflix than the standard ad-free tier. The aggressive push is also a marketing play; many subscribers are still not even aware Netflix offers ads on its service.
The streamer had the most Oscar nominations of any individual studio going into Oscar Sunday, but it came away with only one: for Wes Anderson and his live-action short film “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.” Netflix will soon have a new film chief in Dan Lin who will hopefully bring more gold to Netflix — in more ways than one.
