For months, it seemed near certain that domestic box office for 2023 would surpass $9 billion — even after strike-related delays meant losing as much as $500 million in potential gross. To be sure, $9 billion wasn’t a crazy goal; it represents 22 percent above 2022, but far below the glory days of 2018 and 2019. Both years surpassed $11 billion at ticket prices about 15 percent lower than now.
After a very disappointing November, crossing $9 billion becomes a nail-biter. This month’s total will be about $560 million, 11 percent down from $628 million last year.
Leading the shortfall are “The Marvels” and “Wish,” Disney’s two most recent disappointments. “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes” (Lionsgate) will just reach $100 million for the month. Other Novembers saw movies gross more than $200 million like last year’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” or “Frozen” and “Thor: Ragnarok” in 2017.
That leaves year-to-date box office at $8.17 billion, with $830 million more needed to reach $9 billion. Grossing $1 billion or more was the norm pre-COVID; last year saw only $678 million, with $401 million of that from the “Avatar” sequel.
This December lacks an “Avatar” equivalent. In fact, the month’s three top films combined are unlikely to reach that level by December 31. However, we still have a shot at closing the gap with 10 wide releases (last year had five), several of which have good potential.
It starts December 1 with a rare pre-Christmas title expected to open over $20 million. “Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé” (Variance, for AMC Theatres) follows in the wake of “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” with lower expectations (perhaps $75 million total), but a definite bonus for theaters that might otherwise face a dead zone. Searchlight’s “Poor Things” opens December 8, leading the lineup of limited releases not expected to expand until January.
December 15 has “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) from “Paddington” director Paul King and starring Timothée Chalamet. After “Dune,” it’s his second shot at showing how he can elevate a big-budget ($125 million) release.
Early screenings reflect positive sentiment, but industry opinion ranges widely about the “Wonka” box-office prospects. Opening ahead of Christmas suggests the studio expects a decent reaction. The higher end of expectations suggests it could replicate the success of “The Greatest Showman” from 2015, which critics snubbed on its way to grossing $175 million domestic. Best case would be $125 million by the end of the month.
On December 22, five wide releases debut on the pre-Christmas weekend with “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (WB) as the expected standout. DC Comics’ initial franchise entry was the top December release in 2018 ($199 million during the month, although its $335 million total was low for a major Christmas film). This long-delayed sequel with a reported budget of $205 million will test the decline of audience interest in franchise films and comic-book heroes. Its first 10 days should provide at least $125 million, but likely more would be needed to reach $9 billion.
Only one other new film, Universal’s animated “Migration” is expected to pass $50 million during the month. With “Wish” a minor factor for the holidays, it could see $75 million by the end of the month.
Box-office question marks among the December 22 releases are the rom-com “Anyone but You” (Sony) with Glenn Powell and Emmy nominee Sydney Sweeney, and two highly anticipated titles hoping for awards hopes: “The Iron Claw” from A24 and “American Fiction” from Amazon MGM.
“The Color Purple” (WB) will open December 25, with the musical hoping that critical and awards boosts will give it long-term impact. Also opening that day are George Clooney’s “The Boys in the Boat” (Amazon MGM) and Michael Mann’s “Ferrari” (Neon).
Despite weaker results, November titles could add another $200 million to December. Will it all add up to what’s needed to reach $9 billion? That will take some breaks, including high-end results for “Wonka” and “Aqua-Man,” but the best-case scenario remains a tepid holiday season.
