This article contains IndieWire’s preliminary Best Animated Feature predictions for the 2024 Oscars. We regularly update our predictions throughout awards season and republish previous versions (like this one) for readers to track changes in how the Oscar race has changed. For the latest update on the frontrunners for the 96th Academy Awards, see our 2024 Oscars predictions hub.
The State of the Race
A very crowded Oscar race for Best Animated Feature intensified over the Thanksgiving holiday with two prestigious releases: Disney’s “Wish,” in honor of its 100th anniversary, and Hayao Miyazaki’s summary film, “The Boy and the Heron,” from Studio Ghibli (now in select L.A./NYC theaters, opening wide December 8 through GKids, including a one-week IMAX engagement).
In addition, Adam Sandler’s animated musical comedy “Leo” began streaming on Netflix November 21 to become the biggest animated debut for the streamer; “They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics), the Bossa Nova origin story doc from Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal (the Oscar-nominated “Chico & Rita”), began its one-week qualifying run November 24 in L.A./NYC; and “Deep Sea” (Viva Pictures), the acclaimed Chinese film from Tian Xiaopeng (“Monkey King: Hero is Back”), also opened a limited run November 24.
Still to come are “The Peasants” (Sony Pictures Classics, December 8 qualifying run in L.A./NYC), the follow-up to the landmark, Oscar-nominated “Loving Vincent,” with the same animated oil painting technique from the wife-and-husband directing team of D.K. Welchman and Hugh Welchman; “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (streaming on Netflix December 15), Aardman’s sequel to their highest-grossing stop-motion film of all time; and “Migration” (Illumination/Universal, December 22), the family vacation and coming of age story about a family of ducks, directed by Benjamin Renner (the Oscar-nominated “Ernest & Celestine”).
Although Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is the overwhelming consensus pick to win the Oscar, the other frontrunners as of now include “Wish,” which, despite its mixed reviews and dismal five-day holiday box office debut of $37.1 million, impressed with dazzling 2D/CG animation and the most delicious Disney villain in ages with Chris Pine’s King Magnifico; “The Boy and the Heron,” which masterfully tells Miyazaki’s most personal story and offers some of his greatest animation and world building; Pixar’s first love story, “Elemental,” which offered innovative simulated character animation and found a receptive audience internationally and on Disney+ after flopping at the domestic box office; and Netflix’s underdog “Nimona,” the animated adaptation of ND Stevenson’s best-selling LGBTQ graphic novel, set in a futuristic medieval world, about an oppressed shape-shifting teen.
However, aside from “Across the Spider-Verse” and probably “The Boy and the Heron,” the other three spots are very uncertain, which gives hope to “Chicken Run,” “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Nickelodeon/Paramount), “The Peasants,” “Migration,” and even the blockbuster “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination/Universal).
Here’s a more detailed rundown of the frontrunners and contenders:
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” surpassed its Oscar-winning predecessor at the box office ($381 million domestically and $689 million globally) and upped its game with a more expansive story and greater animated tech innovations. Producers Phil Lord and Chris Miller and new directors Joaquim Dos Santos (“The Legend of Korra”), Kemp Powers (“Soul” co-director), and Justin K. Thompson (“Into the Spider-Verse” production designer) hurled Miles Morales (Shameik Moore) and Spider-Gwen (Hailee Steinfeld) into several new dimensions to battle Spot (Jason Schwartzman), including Gwen’s watercolor world and the India-inspired Mumbattan. And for that, Sony Pictures Imageworks created innovative tools for translating more elaborate 2D stylization into 3D with new systems for using pencil, pen and ink, markers, and paintbrushes.
“Wish,” the origin story of the wishing star, merges the past and present in honor of Walt’s ethos of making hopes and dreams come true. Jennifer Lee, Disney’s chief creative officer and the screenwriter of the musical fantasy, reunites with her “Frozen” team: Peter Del Vecho and director Chris Buck (who is joined by newbie director Fawn Veerasunthorn (head of story for “Raya and the Last Dragon“). Asha (Ariana DeBose), the 17-year-old idealist, is a modern Disney heroine with a social conscience, trying to secure the wishes of her medieval kingdom of Rosas, where Sorcerer King Magnifico has imprisoned them. She’s guided by Star, the boundless energy force, inspired by Mickey Mouse, who answers her call. Production designer Michael Giaimo (“Frozen”) oversaw the 2D-looking watercolor style inspired by early Disney fairy tales, with CG artists creating the new look. Grammy-nominated Julia Michaels composed seven original songs that are another modern touch, and Dave Metzger composed the score.
With “The Boy and the Heron,” Miyazaki came out of retirement again to make the semi-autobiographical, hand-drawn film for his grandchildren, inspired by the novel he adored as a child: “How Do You Live?” The eponymous teen loses his mother in the firebombing of Japan during World War II and relocates to the countryside, where his father marries his sister-in-law. During this troubled state, the boy encounters a talking gray heron that leads him into a parallel universe and a life-altering adventure. Many of Mayazaki’s familiar tropes are imaginatively woven into a beautiful and wistful summary statement on mortality and imagination.
Pixar’s “Elemental” continues the trend of telling semi-autobiographical stories. Director Peter Sohn (“The Good Dinosaur”) was inspired to tell the love story of his parents, who emigrated from Korea in the ’70s and ran a grocery store in the Bronx. Pixar created new tech for the effects-heavy film to make fire and water look and behave convincingly as CG characters and how they overlap. It’s set in Elemental City, where people made of the four elements — earth, air, water, and fire — coexist in a community rife with division. Tough, sharp-witted, fiery Ember (Leah Lewis) develops a friendship with her polar opposite, the laid-back, sentimental, and watery Wade (Mamoudou Athie).
“Nimona,” rescued by Annapurna Animation and Netflix after Disney shuttered Blue Sky following the Fox acquisition, is a queer breakthrough about conquering xenophobia in its futuristic medieval world. Directed by Nick Bruno and Troy Quane (“Spies in Disguise”) features a knight (Riz Ahmed) framed for murder, who teams up with the eponymous shape-shifter, and also contains a same-sex love story involving the knight and his bestie-turned-rival (Eugene Lee Yang). The animation from DNEG has a quirky 2D aesthetic that’s perfect for the tone and setting.
As for the rest of the contenders:
“Dawn of the Nugget” offers Aardman’s most complex hybrid use of stop-motion and CG enhancement for this reverse heist film, in which Rocky (Zachary Levi, replacing Mel Gibson), Ginger (Thandiwe Newton, taking over from Julia Sawalha), and daughter Molly (Bella Ramsey) and their buddies are forced to break back into the farm they left behind to thwart a sinister plot.
Makoto Shinkai’s “Suzume” (Crunchyroll) marks his most beautiful and ambitious fantasy romance yet, in which a small-town teen anxiously travels throughout Japan with a mysterious companion trapped inside a magical chair to save her country from a cataclysmic disaster (inspired by the Great East Japan Earthquake).
The Welchmans tackle a much more complex dramatic epic in “The Peasants” (Poland’s international Oscar entry). It’s adapted from Nobel laureate Wladislaw Reymont’s early 20th-century novel about life in a rural Polish village. They’ve advanced their breakthrough animation technique of filming actors in live action and then creating 40,000 oil paintings that are placed on top of the photographic images and then animated in dynamic fashion. These are in the style of the period (particularly the Young Poland Movement of naturalism and impressionism).
The punkish reboot of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” was a surprise summer hit ($191 million domestically and $485 million worldwide. Director Jeff Rowe (co-director of “The Mitchells vs. The Machines”) utilized a rough sketch look through CG to depict the teenage passions and imperfections of the Turtles. It’s about the heroic aspirations of Leonardo (Nicolas Cantu), Michelangelo (Shamon Brown Jr.), Donatello (Micah Abbey), and Raphael (Brady Noon) and wanting to be accepted by humans.
“Migration,” a charming and exquisite-looking film about breaking out of your comfort zone, enhanced by the prestige of director Renner, could finally land an Oscar nomination for Illumination and founder/producer Chris Meledandri. As for “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” the Nintendo video game adaptation that grossed $1.36 billion globally and $574.9 million domestically, while the storytelling left a lot to be desired, it could sneak in for being such a nostalgic favorite in re-imagining struggling Brooklyn plumbers Mario (Chris Pratt) and Luigi (Charlie Day) as superheroes.
Pablo Berger’s “Robot Dreams” (NEON), the bittersweet Spanish/French hand-drawn dramedy about the friendship between a lonely dog and robot companion in New York City in the ’80s, earned the Special Jury Prize at this year’s Animation Is Film Festival. It’s adapted from the award-winning graphic novel by Sara Varon and broadens her work with Chaplinesque moments and detailed world-building.
“My Love Affair with Marriage” (8 Above), from director Signe Baumane (“Rocks in My Pockets”), explores Zelma on her 23-year quest for perfect love and lasting marriage set against a backdrop of historic events in Eastern Europe. The hand-drawn feature includes the voices of Dagmara Dominczyk and Matthew Modine, the executive producer.
With “Leo,” directed by former “SNL” writers Robert Marianetti, Robert Smigel, and David Wachtenheim, Sandler returns to his indie roots of “Eight Crazy Nights.” It’s a sweet and slightly subversive story about a 74-year-old lizard suffering an existential crisis who dispenses advice to Florida fifth graders to help them overcome their anxieties before heading off to middle school.
“Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks/Universal) gets more psychedelic with a tribute to boybands and family bands and expands the universe, as Justin Timberlake’s Branch re-connects with his estranged brothers, who are kidnapped by sibling pop star villains Velvet (Amy Schumer) and Veneer (Andrew Rannells).
In “They Shot the Piano Player,” Trueba and Mariscal explore a New York music journalist (voiced by Jeff Goldblum) who goes on a quest to uncover the truth behind the mysterious disappearance of young Brazilian piano virtuoso Tenorio Jr.
“Deep Sea” concerns a sad girl who falls into the sea and stumbles upon a mysterious restaurant. It utilizes a tech innovation of ink paintings based around particles.
Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it.
Frontrunners
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Wish”
Contenders
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Deep Sea”
“Leo”
“Migration”
“My Love Affair with Marriage”
“Robot Dreams”
“Suzume”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
“The Peasants”
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“They Shot the Piano Player”
“Trolls Band Together”
