On a weekend like this one it’s easy to bury the positive news, so let’s start with the good stuff.
Three non-franchise original films, all budgeted under $50 million, saw credible results. Sony’s “No Hard Feelings” with Jennifer Lawrence, an R-rated comedy, did around 25 percent better than pre-release estimates (around $15 million, compared to $12 million, pending Sunday actuals). Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City” (Focus) proved its opening platform weekend was no fluke with $9 million (in 1,675 theaters, less than half of a normal wide run). And Celine Song’s “Past Lives” (A24), rolling out more slowly, is already at $3.5 million while in fewer than 300 theaters.
Add to those the continued strong performance of “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony), which is back at #1 and headed to a $375 million-$400 million domestic total (double 2018’s initial entry). Pixar’s “Elemental” saw a credible hold (-38 percent) to retain the #2 position. And “The Little Mermaid,” falling only 22 percent, is at $270 million domestic, while Disney’s “Boogeyman” (its fourth top 10 title) fell only 40 percent. It’s headed to over $40 million, a credible showing for a lower-budget original in the heart of the summer, and equal or better to its sleeper “Barbarian” last fall.
That’s not bad for any given box office weekend. Here’s the rub: It’s not. It is the heart of the summer and not a single film grossed more than $20 million. A late June weekend like this often sees openings over $100 million, multiple films over $30 million, and a total gross of $200 million or higher.
This weekend is about $110 million (pending Sunday results — the order for the Top 10 looks correct, but some of the estimates might be a bit high). It is the second-worst June weekend in 20 years by a considerable margin (excluding 2020-2021). In 2019, the last normal year, the weekend grossed $164 million.
Part of the shortfall stems from the continued weakness of “The Flash” (Warner Bros. Discovery). The DC Comics film fell 72 percent from its weak $55 million start, adding only $15 million to the weekend. Other studios gave it a wide berth (seen in only the counterprogramming of “No Hard Feelings”), anticipating perhaps a $40 million second stanza.
However, some of the blame goes to “Elemental.” As a summer Pixar title in its second weekend, it would be expected to capture at least $40 million; it grossed $18.5 million.
The weekend’s total is down $25 million from last year and the summer remains around three percent ahead of last year. Though there are prospects for improvement ahead, this projects to a $3.5 billion season, below optimistic hopes. If that’s the case, and 2023 continues its 21 percent jump over 2022, that would put the year at $8.9 billion.
Success for “No Hard Feelings” remains to be seen. Initial foreign results gets it to just under $25 million. Its $45 million budget (marketing might double the cost) demands a three times or better multiple.
Weekend projections for “Asteroid City” were an optimistic $6 million, making $9 million a huge win for Focus and for specialized film. It expanded more rapidly, but that performance is better than any single week for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” or for Anderson’s previous best weekend performer, “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” This level of performance doesn’t suggest it will reach those levels, but $30 million domestic (too early to suggest that) would be a huge achievement. “The Whale” and “The Fabelmans,” the two best late 2022 awards contenders, did under $20 million.
It’s significant that “Asteroid” and “Past Lives” include many non-top chain theaters in their breaks; even more so that they are among the best-grossing screens for both films. In its fourth weekend, “Lives” grossed over $1.1 million in 297 theaters. It slow rollout is critical as it takes root among wider audiences. This is a very encouraging performance.
The Top 10
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) Week 4; Last weekend #3
$19,300,000 (-29%) in 3,785 (-88) theaters; PTA: $5,099; Cumulative: $317,515,000
2. Elemental (Disney) Week 2; Last weekend #2
$18,500,000 (-38%) in 4,035 (no change) theaters; PTA: $4,576; Cumulative: $65,514,000
3. The Flash (WBD) Week 2; Last weekend #1
$15,265,000 (-70%) in 4,256 (+22) theaters; PTA: $3,587; Cumulative: $87,644,000
4. No Hard Feelings (Sony) NEW – Metacritic: 58; Est. budget: $45 million
$15,100,000 in 3,208 theaters; PTA: $4,707; Cumulative: $15,100,000
5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Paramount) Week 3; Last weekend #4
$11,600,000 (-44%) in 3,523 (-157) theaters; PTA: $3,293; Cumulative: $122,948,000
6. Asteroid City (Focus) Week 2; Last weekend #11
$9,000,000 (+955%) in 1,675 (+1,669) theaters; PTA: $5,373; Cumulative: $10,215,000
7. The Little Mermaid (Disney) Week 5; Last weekend #5
$8,674,000 (-22%) in 3,275 (-205) theaters; PTA: $2,649; Cumulative: $270,242,000
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) Week 8; Last weekend #4; also on PVOD
$3,518,000 (-33%) in 2,010 (-1,165) theaters; PTA: $1,750; Cumulative: $351,123,000
9. The Blackening (Lionsgate) Week 2; Last weekend #6
$3,025,000 (-50%) in 1,775 (no change) theaters; PTA: $1,704; Cumulative: $12,267,000
10. The Boogeyman (Disney) Week 4; Last weekend #8
$2,541,000 (-30%) in 1,640 (-500) theaters; PTA: $1.549; Cumulative: $37,710,000
Other specialized titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited, as well as awards-oriented releases) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first two weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed.
The Last Rider (Roadside) NEW – Festivals include: Telluride 2022
$53,740 in 105 theaters; PTA: $512
Revoir Paris (Music Box) NEW – Metacritic score: 71; Festivals include: Cannes, Toronto 2022
$8,086 in 2 theaters; PTA: $4,043
Past Lives (A24) Week 4
$1,121,162 in 296 (+211) theaters; PTA: $3,788; Cumulative: $3,564,000
The Roundup (Blue Fox) Week 4
$58,769 in 14 theaters; Cumulative: $780,176
You Hurt My Feelings (A24) Week 5
$97,065 in 151 (-98) theaters; Cumulative: $4,613,000
It Ain’t Over (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 7; also on PVOD 97
$26,799 in 64 (-33) theaters; Cumulative: $631,159
