July, the season of fireworks, vacations, and light-hearted blockbusters, represents this summer’s last shot at a $100 million opening. It will also determine if box office has a shot at improving on last year’s $3.4 billion total.
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Disney) opens tomorrow, “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount) is July 12, and “Barbie” (Warner Bros. Discovery) and “Oppenheimer” (Universal) are July 19. All are expected to open to at least $50 million; $100 million is not entirely unrealistic, but it may be unlikely. All told, the month could represent anywhere from $1 billion to as much as $1.4 billion.
Going in, the hope was a $4 billion summer — an 18 percent improvement above the 2022 total of just under $3.4 billion. So far, the improvement is 3.5 percent, on track for $3.5 billion. Even that isn’t guaranteed, although there’s hope that August will represent a significant improvement over a very weak 2022.
The June estimate is slightly over $1 billion, a four percent uptick from last year. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony) contributed about a third of this, followed at some distance by “The Little Mermaid” (Disney) and “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount), both of which grossed over $100 million in June. “The Flash” (WBD) and “Elemental” (Disney) will both reach $100 million, but their sluggish trajectories hurt the month’s performance.
Opening-day grosses for “Indiana Jones” will go on the June ledger, with the bulk of its run in July. At this point, opening projections are no better than $70 million. That would be disappointing: Its production budget is $100 million more than “The Flash,” which opened to an underwhelming $55 million.
“Mission: Impossible” should be the month’s best performer as well as the best long-term bet. However, current tracking places its opening under $100 million. At this point, it may not challenge “Spider-Verse” for the summer’s #1 title; it’s headed toward $400 million domestic.
“Oppenheimer” will not open to $100 million and “Barbie” is a longshot, but they’re non-franchise titles without clear multi-quadrant appeal; it’s more important to consider their longer-term prospects.
Both have intense interest, although “Oppenheimer” could suffer from the same premium-screen syndrome that depressed initial grosses for “Avatar: The Way of Water” last December. Marketing emphasizes the superiority of the biggest-possible screens, particularly IMAX. That limits seating, as does three-hour running time.
“Barbie” has particularly strong female appeal, perhaps skewing a bit older. It’s unclear what it will offer other audiences, although its marketing promises that “If you love Barbie, this movie is for you… if you hate Barbie, this movie is for you.” (No word on what it does for those who don’t have strong feelings either way.)
The guess is “Barbie” will have the bigger opening that is more likely to top $50 million. Both films have budgets around $100 million, far below “Mission: Impossible” — yet another pegged around $300 million.
Other wide openings include “Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken” (Universal) tomorrow, “Insidious: The Red Door” (Sony) and “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate) July 7, then at the end of the month Disney’s “Haunted Mansion” and A24’s horror title “Talk to Me,” both July 28.
We figure the holdovers will add $225 million to the month’s total; all other new films, perhaps another $75 million. July last year took in $1.133 billion, the best month post-COVID. There’s a strong chance this July won’t improve on that, although the potential should be there for at least $1.2 billion. That would be only six percent over 2022 and raise the season to about five percent ahead.
It’s a tall order to hope that the top titles and other new releases will gross reach $900 million in July. It will take everything working at full tilt for this to happen.
With the prospects of production delays due to the WGA and potential SAG strikes, a summer release schedule that has fallen short, and general concern around the viability of comic-book movies, a lot is at stake. At this point, we know theaters are central to achieving all-platform success; what’s in question is whether the high expense of making and launching these titles makes financial sense.
