It would be a a first for this summer — a highly touted #1 opener that greatly exceeds projections.
Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” (Warner Bros. Discovery) is already tracking for a $100 million start and per industry sources it has a chance to reach as high as $150 million initially. That’s based on presales, with the backing of strong reviews and a PR blitzkrieg that’s kickstarted organic interest.
We’re witnessing a unique, two-week confluence of three titles that have been hyped for years with the just-opened “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount) and now Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” (Universal) and “Barbie.” It provides theaters with excitement and anticipation more than any other event in recent years. “Mission: Impossible” and “Oppenheimer” speak to presentation’s unique ability to elevate certain films, while “Barbie” is a comedy and a shared celebration of an iconic symbol — a stellar example of the community experience theaters offer.
Combined, the three films (along with the momentum for “Sound of Freedom”) will result in the biggest weekend this year. All credit to Cruise, Gerwig, and Nolan for coming into play just as the summer faced implosion.
Nolan and Cruise are used to the theatrical-savior moniker; to their clan, we can add Gerwig. She’s poised for the best opening of the three, perhaps by some margin, and it will likely be the biggest grosser as well.
“Mission: Impossible ” should be close to $100 million IN U.S./Canada through Thursday, after nine days. With the loss of premium theaters to “Oppenheimer” and competition ahead, it should reach at least $200 million. It likely will likely double that in foreign gross. It deserves credit for providing a satisfied, excited audience ahead of two other major releases.
Nolan’s claim to savior status came from his insistence that “Tenet” be released in September 2021 when many theaters were still closed, and then with extended theatrical exclusivity. It eked out $58 million in the U.S./Canada and got to $365 million worldwide. Its $200 million expense before marketing made it a likely loss, but the benefits to struggling theaters were immense.
On paper, “Oppenheimer” is the least commercial of any Nolan film since “Insomnia.” A three-hour, partially black-and-white biopic starring Cillian Murphy is a risk, even before its $100 million pre-marketing budget. Credit to Nolan for making an unlikely original title so interesting to a sizeable public, and for using his technical preferences (70mm IMAX production) to corral most premium screens and convince many viewers to seek out higher-priced locations.
This might be a double-edged sword: the opening-weekend gross might be curbed by the limited seats and fewer showtimes. That means audience reaction, even more than strong reviews, will play a big role in whether this becomes a significant success. Consensus suggests a $50 million opening. “Avatar: The Way of Water,” similarly limited, but not remotely with similar competition, grossed $134 million.
Then there’s “Barbie.” The precedent here is “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.” They are significantly different — “Mario” is animated, aimed at younger audiences, and didn’t get good reviews — but they’re both comedies (a genre that’s lagged in theaters), very famous fantasy figures who have attracted fans for decades, and offer a significant nostalgia factor. Add to this the star duo of Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, a rising-star director, and strong reviews.
All of these films may benefit from coming out after a disappointing summer when too many titles fell short in their openings, or fell quicker than expected. What’s been missing is that one film that gets the public really excited.
At least one of these, and possibly more, should fit the bill. That three appear simultaneously ultimately is the best news for theaters.
