Paramount reports that “Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning — Part One” has a U.S./Canada gross of $23.8 million through Thursday. That so far qualifies it as a good, but not great number. Still, the figures include one positive sign going into the film‘s crucial first full weekend.
The Thursday haul was $8.3 million. That was down only slightly from Wednesday with $8.5 million as part of the initial report of $15.5 million, which also included earlier in the week previews. That suggests favorable reactions, which could feed into boosting the weekend ahead.
A Wednesday non-holiday summer opening like this has few precedents, making models for projecting the weekend trickier. But the nearly-same daily take from the full opening day is encouraging.
Before this report, projections for the initial weekend ranged from $70 million to $90 million. The strong Thursday should elevate this above the lower end, but the reality is trickier to predict, and not just because of the lack of similar past cases.
Nearly $24 million for the pre-Friday take would be considered strong for most films. “Mission: Impossible” however is burdened both by its expense ($290 million production budget) and expectations (the need for a massive hit after a subpar summer, the hope it might be the biggest of the season).
That elevates demand for instant reaction to the grosses. Apart from the lack of certainty so far, those reactions are still premature. Two major reasons stand out: First, the precedent from the previous “Mission: Impossible” (“Fallout” in 2018) is that this could have a very strong run beyond its opening. “Fallout” opened to $61 million, then ended up with nearly four times domestic total ($224 million). Second, that film, similar to other top big star, big budget action franchise entries, did nearly 75 percent of its business overseas.
With an A Cinemascore (similar to “Fallout”) and initial signs of a strong hold, chances for strong legs remain. Unlike last time, however, the competition ahead (including both “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” next week) is intense.
There is yet no information on foreign results, so that remains up in the air. That leaves us with less information, but again what we have is encouraging if not yet stellar. That determination is still to come.
Though “Mission: Impossible” will be an easy #1 for the weekend, news could also be made by the child trafficking sleeper “Sound of Freedom” (Angel). The film is doing a steady $4 million+ daily, and could be headed to a second weekend of over $25 million. Don’t look now, but this very independent and right-wing grass roots supported film could end up with over $100 million.
That would rank it among the most unlikely hits ever. Though with a completely different audience ideologically, it is reminiscent of the 2004 hit “Fahrenheit 9/11,” Michael Moore’s documentary grossed (adjusted for current prices) over $200 million. His side did not win that year’s election.
