Last weekend was a critical test of the summer box office, with results more negative than positive. This weekend has the opportunity to change that course.
This late June weekend is normally a high point. The last five years pre-pandemic, it saw an average gross of around $200 million (and at lower ticket prices). This year it may struggle to reach $120 million, once unheard of for any weekend between May and mid-August.
“No Hard Feelings,” a $48 million R-rated comedy from Sony with producer Jennifer Lawrence starring as a woman hired to help a shy and inexperienced 19-year-old gain confidence, will be a four-prong test: an original non-franchise film, a female lead, a comedy, and rated R. Should it perform, it could expand standard production assumptions.
This weekend will also see the expansion of two specialized films. Wider response to Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City” (Focus) and first-time filmmaker Celine Song’s “Past Lives” (A24) will send strong signals about the recovery of this struggling critical sector of theatrical play.
DC Comics’ “The Flash” and Pixar’s “Elemental” opened to dramatic shortfalls, but “Elemental” shows signs of stabilizing. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” also continues to hold well; either could challenge “The Flash” and “No Hard Feelings” among the top films for the week. While these will be the weekend’s top four films, the actual order contains multiple possibilities.
At mid-week, “No Hard Feelings” tracked to a $12 million opening — underwhelming, both for its expense and its potential. Non-animated comedies can do better — “Cocaine Bear” opened to $23 million with less star power earlier this year. When well received, non-franchise films sometimes thrive more after their initial response; that word-of-mouth factor should be kept in mind in judging its opening gross. The film is notching mixed reviews (Metacritic currently stands at 57).
The idea that a producing a mass-audience film starring Jennifer Lawrence qualifies as a risk seems absurd, yet that’s what Sony has done. This kind of film used to be a summer staple (see “Risky Business,” “American Pie,” “There’s Something About Mary”) and perhaps it can again.
Both “Asteroid City” and “Past Lives” look like they will pass $10 million domestic gross — a level that eluded most of last year’s awards contenders. Although they share two-city platform starts (unusual these days), their expansions have different trajectories.
After its staggering $1 million gross in only six theaters for its first four days, “Asteroid City” opens at 1,668 theaters. It helps that filmmaker Wes Anderson has a devoted following and past successes (led by “The Grand Budapest Hotel” in 2014, which saw a $55 million gross).
After several films with Searchlight, Focus hopes to improve on “The French Dispatch” in 2021. Anderson’s previous film faced late-COVID issues, but managed to gross $16.1 million. It opened in 52 theaters and expanded in its second week to 2,602 and $2.6 million. The “Asteroid City” opening comes with soft competition, a well-known ensemble cast, and a sense of intrigue. Giving audiences something fresh is an underrated asset.
A conservative guess for the “Asteroid City” weekend would be around $5 million, with an ultimate $20 million or higher domestic gross. Combined with international totals and likely PVOD interest (likely before late summer) would be a winning result.
“Past Lives” enters its fourth week with only 297 theaters planned (up from its current 212). It has grossed over $2 million in limited play and last weekend’s per-theater average of $8,951 compares well to most key Oscar players last season. This in-house A24 production has an uncertain budget, but likely one that a domestic gross of $10 million or better, along with other later revenues, would make profitable.
The success of a sensitive drama that’s not propelled by a known director or stars, with older- audience appeal and outside the awards season, would be a terrific boost for the specialized film industry. A24’s slower release also means core specialized theaters are more central to the release pattern. Maximizing gross without the higher expense of a much wider release would be doubly positive.
Next week, summer business as usual returns with the release of “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Disney), with a reported $295 million budget and uncertain blockbuster potential.
