We’re all still far off from knowing for sure what the most likely 2025 Oscar contenders are. But the ripple effect of the WGA and SAG strikes is a spring film season of buzzy, auteur-driven dramas. This is still true of “Dune: Part Two,” the film that has set the tone of this year’s awards conversation, though with six Oscars already under the Warner Bros. franchise’s belt, its chances at more Academy Awards nominations are all too predictable.
An Oscars wild card is “Civil War,” the latest A24 film from writer-director Alex Garland. While his most recent film with the company, “Men,” underperformed critically and commercially, his first collaboration with A24, “Ex Machina,” netted Garland his sole Oscar nomination, for Best Original Screenplay, and won the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects.
“Civil War” mostly strays from the science fiction narratives present in much of Garland’s work, instead offering more of a realistically dystopian near-future where another civil war has erupted in America. Centering on a small group of journalists played by Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, and Stephen McKinley Henderson, the film is a road trip that sees them race to Washington, D.C. There, they hope to interview the President of the United States before the predominating resistance topples him.
If we start by measuring “Civil War” against the two Oscar categories Garland films have been in before, it is unlikely this new film gets the same credit for visual effects that “Ex Machina” did — especially when up against “Dune: Part Two.” Judging by the past decade of winners, if the voters are not going for the fantastical, they go for period. This year’s winner, “Godzilla Minus One,” had both elements.
There is more hope for a Best Original Screenplay nod given the film’s perceived resonance with the current U.S. election. The film has been criticized for its ambiguous approach toward a story of national dissonance, with few answers to how the country got there or which party the audience should side with. Still, there is definitely a brand of Academy voter within the Writers branch who will appreciate the effort toward something reflective of American discord. A respect for a political script without a vivisection of its politics.
Honestly, it really is all never say never. Again, an April release has not been the traditional road toward a Best Picture nomination, but there are 10 slots open. Even though A24 has been around for just over a decade, it already has two Best Picture wins — one for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” similarly a SXSW premiere — so there is precedent for the studio to guide a film like “Civil War” through an almost year-long campaign. The film is also poised to be A24’s biggest domestic opening by a large margin, so there is a wider audience for it.
“Civil War” begs the question of why Alex Garland hasn’t been in the Best Director conversation than whether he’ll be actually nominated. His actors mostly fare better, with Cailee Spaeny most of all building upon her Volpi Cup-winning “Priscilla” performance in a vastly different supporting role that highlights her range (even if her character could be described on paper as another young woman that becomes embedded among adults and has to grow up too fast.)
Coincidentally, “Civil War” is actually the film that helped get Spaeny her role in “Priscilla,” as star Kirsten Dunst, who has served as a muse for filmmaker Sofia Coppola, put in a good word for the actress. Unfortunately, “Civil War” is not exactly the most ideal showcase for Dunst in her first role since “The Power of the Dog,” which earned her an Oscar nomination. Though she is easily the heart of the film, her character’s arc fizzles in a way that doesn’t instantly signal her Best Actress contention.
Her partner Jesse Plemons, also a recent Oscar nominee for “The Power of the Dog,” does have the sort of intense, one-and-done scene that has gotten certain actors into the awards race. But the supporting performance in “Civil War” that may have more awards potential comes from Stephen McKinley Henderson, the conscience of the group. Though the veteran actor has been in many a Best Picture nominee, a performance of his has yet to be recognized. A Best Supporting Actor campaign for the 74-year-old, who still gets in on some of the action in “Civil War,” would be a long time coming. Meanwhile, with Moura, the film reintroduces the Brazilian actor as a charismatic presence who should continue to book even bigger movie roles.
As for the film’s chances among the craft categories, the one that stands out most is Best Sound. The team that includes Oscar-winning sound designer Glenn Freemantle both embraces and subverts expectations of a war film, at times emphasizing the deafening effect of an explosion, or juxtaposing difficult war images with popular music blasting through the theater speakers.
The fall season could change it all, but right now, there’s a case to be made for Alex Garland’s “Civil War” having a shot at the Oscars.
