Alex Garland’s “Civil War” opened to an estimated $25.7 million this weekend, nearly double the best wide opening for any previous A24 title. It’s also about $7 million more than the combined openings last weekend for “Monkey Man” (Universal) and “The First Omen” (Disney).
Despite its B- Cinemascore, the near-future domestic dystopia came in over 25 percent better than projections. The A24 brand, the indefatigable war theme, advance interest (including a widely covered SXSW premiere), topicality, originality, IMAX sales, and mostly positive reviews propelled it to success.
With a reported production cost of at least $50 million, and uncertainty about foreign interest (initial grosses incomplete), it will need to be more than an initial sensation. Even so, particularly with likely significant post-theatrical interest, it initially appears that A24’s risk will pay off.
An opening on this scale for a non-franchise independent title only adds to A24’s bona fides. In recent weeks Neon and IFC each had best-ever wide openings (with much smaller grosses), but they had little precedent. For A24, it comes after multiple previous wide releases.
A24, IFC, and Neon are all considered leaders in the specialized world. However, it is interesting to see that “Civil War,” “Immaculate” (Neon), and “Late Night with the Devil” (IFC) are all R-rated genre titles aimed at younger viewers — not conventional specialized fare.
All told, the weekend grossed about $76 million. That’s down nearly half from the same weekend last year and brings the year-to-date comparison to 16 percent less. Last week’s disappointing openings didn’t help: “Monkey Man” fell 59 percent to #6 and “First Omen” 55 percent for seventh. “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” (Warner Bros.) dropped 50 percent in its third weekend for second place. It’s now at $158 million domestic, $437 million worldwide.
“Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” (Sony) is third, with $97 million domestic through three weekends. “Kung Fu Panda 4” at #4 had the smallest drop in the top 10 at 29 percent, parallel to its initial availability on PVOD. It now has a better shot at reaching $200 million domestic.
The top 10 also included “The Long Game” (Emick) at #8 (biopic for a championship 1950s team of young Latino golfers), a reissue of DreamWorks’ “Shrek 2” (Universal) at #9, and a Saturday encore showing of the concert film “Suga/Agust: Tour D-Day — The Movie” (Trafalagar).
Neanderthal comedy “Sasquatch Sunset” led new platform openings with $93,500 in nine theaters in four cities. The slightly broader initial city play reduced the per-theater average, with Angelika Theater in New York a standout.
Two wider new horror releases failed to make much impact. The Australian “Sting” (WellGo) did $1.2 million in 1,350 theaters; Nicolas Cage’s latest effort, “Arcadian” (IFC), managed a bleak $481,000 in 1,100.
A necessary note, if reluctant: For the second weekend in a row, estimates for “Wicked Little Lies” (Sony Pictures Classics) suggest that Sunday’s gross will equal Saturday’s; the norm is a drop of 33 percent or more. (Last week, the film’s Sunday gross dropped 40 percent, worst in the top 10.)
This week’s “Wicked” estimate of $820,000 looks to again to be too high. Last week, SPC’s guess was 17 percent higher than reality (and quietly corrected on Monday morning). This week won’t be certain until the actuals are in, but it might be 10 percent. No one’s perfect in box-office assessments, but industry norm is plus or minus 2-3 percent. Mistakes at this level for two weekends in the row is nearly unprecedented.
The Top 10
1. Civil War (A24) NEW – Metacritic: B-; Cinemascore: 77; Est. budget: $50 million
$25,713,000 in 3,838 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $6,699; Cumulative: $25,713,000
2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Warner Bros.) Week 3; last weekend #1
$15,450,000 (-50%) in 3,847 (-110) theaters; PTA: $4,016; Cumulative: $157,932,000
3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Sony) Week 4; Last weekend #2
$5,800,000 (-36%) in 3,350 (-485) theaters; PTA: $1,772; Cumulative: $96,967,000
4. Kung Fu Panda 4 (Universal) Week 6; Last weekend #5; also on PVOD
$5,500,000 (-29%) in 3,104 (-294) theaters; PTA: $1,772; Cumulative: $173,680,000
5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) Week 7; Last weekend #6
$4,320,000 (-42%) in 2,401 (-435) theaters; PTA: $1,799; Cumulative: $272,104,000
6. Monkey Man (Universal) Week 2; Last weekend #2
$4,100,000 (-59%) in 3,037 (+8) theaters; PTA: $1,350; Cumulative: $17,760,000
7. The First Omen (Disney) Week 2; Last weekend #4
$3,781,000 in 3,375 (no change) theaters; PTA: $1,120; Cumulative: $14,638,000
8. The Long Game (Emick) NEW – Metacritic: 65
$1,390,000 in 1,030 theaters; PTA: $1,350; Cumulative: $1,390,000
9. Shrek 2 (Universal) REISSUE
$1,350,000 in 1,512 theaters; PTA: $893; Cumulative: $(adjusted) 651,350,000
10. Suga/Agust: Tour D-Day —The Movie (Trafalagar) NEW (opened Wednesday)
$990,881 (Saturday only) in 525 theaters; PTA: $1,259; Cumulative: $2,201,000
Other specialized titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed.Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded.
Sasquatch Sunset (Bleecker Street) NEW – Metacritic: 66; Festivals include: Sundance, Berlin, South by Southwest 2024
$93,500 in 9 theaters; PTA: $10,333
Sting (WellGo) NEW – Metacritic: 52; Festivals include: Miami 2024
$1,200,000 in 980 theaters; PTA: $889
Arcadian (IFC) NEW – Metacritic:; Festivals include:
$481,100 in 1,100 theaters; PTA: $481
Indigo Girls: It’s Only Life After All NEW – Metacritic: 71; Festivals include: Sundance, South by Southwest 2024
$14,150 in 14 theaters; PTA: $1,011; Cumulative (including Wednesday single shows in 100 theaters): $147,382
Absence of Eden (Roadside Attractions) NEW – Metacritic: 55; Festivals include: Taorima 2023
$21,610 in 110 theaters; PTA: $196
Someone Like You (Fathom) Week 2
$849,327 in 930 (-872) theaters; PTA: $922; Cumulative: $4,858
The Beast (Janus/Sideshow) Week 2
$50,600 in 23 (+19) theaters; PTA: $2,200; Cumulative: $106,528
Housekeeping for Beginners (Focus) Week 2
$70,000 in 75 (-71) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $122,000
Wicked Little Letters (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 3
$820,000 in 1,009 theaters (+7); Cumulative: $2,821,000
La Chimera (Neon) Week 3
$179,000 in 216 (+198) theaters; Cumulative: $368,563
In the Land of Saints and Sinners (Goldwyn) Week 3
$54,000 in 145 (-605) theaters; Cumulative: $2,241,000
Immaculate (Neon) Week 4
$480,000 in 600 (-1,106) theaters; Cumulative: $15,287,000
Late Night with the Devil (IFC) Week 4
$440,110 in 607 (-552) theaters; Cumulative: $9,321,000
One Life (Bleecker Street) Week 4
$116,527 in 93 (-167) theaters; Cumulative: $5,366,000
Yolo (Sony) Week 6
$24,000 in 175 (+161 theaters); Cumulative: $1,958,000
