Theatrical exclusivity is holding steady: In the first four months of 2024, it was around 30 days before PVOD — same as last year. However, as we track the theatrical, PVOD, and streaming lifecycles we’re seeing a new trend: The gap between theaters and streamers is shrinking.
Already, we’re seeing first-quarter theatrical releases like Sony’s “Anyone But You” on Netflix or “Dune 2” on Max. For the first two months of 2024, the average gap between the theatrical opening day and the streamers’ debuts was just 68 days. For the same period in 2023, it was 90 days.
Every wide release from the first four months of 2024 is now available for home viewing (or will be soon). The 30-day average between theatrical and PVOD debuts now appears to be a norm, and any stability is welcome in an uncertain industry. However, the accelerating move to streaming is bad news for theaters.
Faster streaming means another theatrical disincentive. A PVOD home release date can offer a silver lining when accompanied by new marketing, since it can boost remaining theater play. When it comes to the audience knowing they can wait two months to watch a movie at home, as part of a subscription they already pay for, there’s no positive spin.
Streaming effectively represents what premium cable once did as a subscriber-based source of recent feature films, but that’s where the resemblance ends. Before COVID, it might take nine months before a movie landed on HBO; today it’s less than three before it’s on Max.
Top streamers have begun bundling their services to simplify subscriptions, much as cable services used to nudge customers toward subscribing to multiple premium movie channels. However, movies took their time before landing on those channels; it would take eight months or more. As streamers work together to simplify the process and trim the time, it increases the likelihood that would-be moviegoers will embrace them as an alternative. Streaming for subscribers is free, and having as an option soon after has to have an impact on when people choose to watch most movies.
This is not what the box office, or theater owners, need to hear. They’re already facing disappointing results for films like “The Fall Guy” (Universal) and “Furiosa” (WB); even relative successes like “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” (WB) and “Kung Fu Panda” (Universal) failed to reach $200 million (only “Dune: Part 2” has managed that so far). It is increasingly difficult to argue that early home availability isn’t part of the reason.
“The Fall Guy” came to PVOD 18 days after release. That has been the norm for most Universal releases since 2021, although the studio delayed its last two animated films to 32 days. The Ryan Gosling film will top out at around $80 million domestic, a significant shortfall from its total expense.
Universal releases more films theatrically than any other studio, something that’s enabled by PVOD revenues (80 percent of the rental after a small carrier charge). With streaming nipping at studios’ heels, earlier PVOD releases become more attractive, but at what cost to theatrical performance remains to be seen.
