Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.
The State of the Race
Unlike the other acting categories, it seems like the best is yet to come for the Best Supporting Actress race. So far, two of the few performances that actually have stood out include Cannes winners Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez from musical crime drama “Emilia Pérez” (though Saldaña could possibly move up categories). Then there is Emily Watson, who won an award at the Berlin Film Festival for her role opposite recent Best Actor winner Cillian Murphy in “Small Things Like These,” which Lionsgate is set to distribute.
There is also Joan Chen, the star of Sundance Audience Award winner “Dìdi,” who has long been a captivating screen presence in projects like “Twin Peaks” and “Lust, Caution,” but has never been nominated for any major awards. As the well-meaning mother of a teenage son discovering himself in the social media stone age, Chen really shines.
Outside of that, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor gives a memorable performance in Sundance film “Exhibiting Forgiveness,” despite it being a little jarring that she plays André Holland’s mother (they only have an 11 year age difference), Aubrey Plaza seems like one of the few members of the “Megalopolis” ensemble to get a consistent kudos after its Cannes rollout, and Jennifer Grey gets to have fun opposite Best Supporting Actor frontrunner Kieran Culkin in the Sundance hit “A Real Pain.”
But the biggest question mark is what the Oscar strategy will be for the stars of Azazel Jacobs’ “His Three Daughters,” which Netflix picked up at TIFF last fall to release later this year. While critics have deemed Natasha Lyonne the standout, it may make some sense to pull her over to the Best Actress race to make more room for co-stars Carrie Coon and Elizabeth Olsen. That said, the streaming service also has the aforementioned “Emilia Pérez,” a force in both categories, so it may be better to double down, and keep Lyonne in the one where she has the best chance at winning.
Again, it is still hard to say who else is set to make an impact. “Wicked” star Ariana Grande, for instance, may not even be considered a supporting actress. But “The Piano Lesson” star Danielle Deadwyler, “Conclave” star Isabella Rosellini, and “Queer” star Lesley Manville all feel like safe bets for what actresses will be in the awards conversation. It’s certainly one that each of them is already used to.
Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.
Frontrunners:
Joan Chen (“Dìdi”)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Exhibiting Forgiveness”)
Jennifer Grey (“A Real Pain”)
Cailee Spaeny (“Civil War”)
Tilda Swinton (“Problemista”)
Contenders:
Maria Bakalova (“The Apprentice”)
Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“The Nickel Boys”)
Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”)
Ariana Grande (“Wicked”)
Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”)
Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”)
Lesley Manville (“Queer”)
Elizabeth Olsen (“His Three Daughters”)
Aubrey Plaza (“Megalopolis”)
Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Emily Watson (“Small Things Like These”)
Robin Wright (“Here”)
