After June’s box-office fireworks (total gross around $980 million), July has three major openings plus strong holdovers. All that — and the month could end up well short of July 2023.
“Despicable Me 4” (Universal, July 3), “Twisters” (Universal, July 19), and “Deadpool and Wolverine” (Disney, July 26) are all expected to be standouts, with more strong grosses to come for “Inside Out 2” (Disney) and “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount). That leaves with month with the potential for reaching $1 billion, but that’s not a guarantee. This year has fewer top releases and nothing like the “Barbie”/”Oppenheimer” phenomenon; the nearly $1.4 billion of 2023 seems out of reach.
Then again, we predicted $700 million for June and thought that was optimism; turns out that was an underestimate of nearly 30 percent. “Inside Out 2” provided a massive overperformance (it grossed $470 million in June while tracking suggested $300 million for its whole run), while results were much better than expected for “Day One” and “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” (Sony).
So although we project July to reach close to $1 billion, more is possible if the revitalization of theater attendance continues. July grosses for “Inside Out” and “A Quiet Place” entries could reach $200 million combined, with another $50 million from other holdovers. June suggested that a better-than-expected recovery is possible.
“Despicable Me 4” has its first four weeks in the month and will bring its projected $275 million – $300 million to July. Unclear is whether “Inside Out” will deplete interest in the Illumination title, or if family interest will transfer. Three of the five films in the franchise (including two “Minions” offshoots) grossed over $300 million domestically.
“Twisters” sounds like the “thrill ride” (horrible phrase) that can take off with audiences, particularly in summer. Steven Spielberg is a master of the art with “Jaws,” “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” “Jurassic Park,” and the original “Twister” (all from his Amblin Productions or directorial involvement).
Directed by Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”), it stars red-hot Glen Powell with Daisy Edgar-Jones, a smart pairing. Advance word is very strong. It has 13 days of play in July; guess $135 million for its July contribution before adding more in August. There is real potential for upside here.
“Deadpool and Wolverine,” 2024’s sole Disney Marvel entry, had been expected to be the summer’s biggest hit. To do so now will require its domestic take to pass the $600 million+ that’s expected for “Inside Out.” The R-rated film is more likely have a potential of $400 million, which would be terrific. Only six days of its release are in July, but $200 million is possible in that period.
If these numbers are in the ballpark, crossing $1 billion means everything else needs to contribute around $150 million. The only other July release that seems likely to gross over $20 million is Sony’s lunar rom-com “Fly Me to the Moon” (July 12) with Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum. Angel Studios’ “Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot” and Ti West’s “MaXXXine” this week (A24) both have a shot, but nothing else really stands out as a wider-release success.
In additon to “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” last July had the sleeper “Sound of Freedom” gross $150 million, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” $145 million of its total, “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1” $140 million, “Insidious: The Red Door” $78 million. With fewer turns at bat, it’s tricky to reach the same gross.
End result? A billion-dollar month would lead to a year-to-date 21 percent shortfall. As of June 30, it had improved to 19 percent. But it’s fair to note that a month ago, our best guess had the shortfall at 25 percent. So miracles do happen.
