Happy birthday, “Barbie” — you left big Birkenstocks to fill.
“Twisters” (Universal) opens this weekend, the one-year anniversary of Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster. It’s the sole new wide release on a July date that often sees the debut of top summer releases like “Oppenheimer,” the “Lion King” remake, “Dunkirk,” “The Dark Knight,” and “The Dark Knight Rises.” It often sees the last big opening before schools start their return in August.
However, director Lee Isaac Chung’s “Twisters” is not the last big opening of this season. Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Disney, July 26) opens the following week to an anticipated $150 million or more. That’s more than the total box office anticipated for this weekend; at best, it will be less than half of the $311 million grossed on July 21-23, 2023.
No one expects the “Twisters” opening to come close to that of the Marvel sequel — but “Twisters” projections of $40 million-$50 million seem unreasonably low. After analyzing multiple factors, including precedence and talks with industry sources, a more realistic guess looks like $60 million or higher. Here are eight reasons why.
The Release Date
The third weekend in July is not only a historically top-grossing date, but this year it comes in the middle of a box-office upswing. The bulk has come from animated titles, but last weekend’s “Longlegs” (Neon) was a pleasant surprise. “Twisters” faces lower-than-average competition for this time of year. “Deadpool” got out of the way when Marvel/Disney re-dated the Ryan Reynolds starrer for July 26. For “Twisters,” July 19 is ideal.
The Franchise
“Twister” is among the most fondly remembered and enduring ’90s box-office hits. Director Jan de Bont’s take on storm chasers risking their lives opened to $41 million in May 1996. That’s $100 million at current ticket prices. It went on to gross $242 million ($600 million today) — a stunning six times its opening.
The original film‘s fans have aged, but its legacy hasn’t. “Twister” has been on iTunes’ top 10 streaming rentals all week, along with availability on Max. The latest “Twisters” reboot feels familiar but still fresh (see “Barbie“).
Escapist Appeal at Last
Escapism is a standard factor for summertime success, an itch that hasn’t been scratched this season. (“Jaws,” “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” “Speed,” and “Jurassic Park” are some key past examples.)
In the summer of 1974, when the country was in the middle of Watergate and the ongoing Vietnam War, MGM opened its musical clip movie “That’s Entertainment” with the catchphrase, “Boy, do we need it now!” Similarly, the timing seems perfect for a film like “Twisters.”
The Premium-Screen Boost
“Deadpool & Wolverine” replaces “Twisters” next week in most premium locations. For this week, “Twisters” will have total access to all premium screens, IMAX and otherwise. It’s the kind of film that demands to be seen in optimal conditions, which will boost its gross with higher-than-average admission prices.
Smart Casting
Led by Glen Powell, who’s established himself as a leading man with “Anyone but You” and “Hit Man,” and buttressed by Daisy Edgar-Jones and Anthony Ramos, the cast brings a lot of credibility and freshness. Neither Bill Paxton nor Helen Hunt was considered an A-level draw in 1996 for “Twister,” but smart casting (Jami Gertz and a lesser-known Philip Seymour Hoffman, among others) was a big asset. History could repeat itself.
Recent Opening Weekends
Since May, “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” “Bad Boys: Ride or Die,” and “A Quiet Place: Day One” all opened between $50 million and $60 million. Why would “Twisters” open lower?
Pre-Production Expectations
“Twisters” cost $155 million pre-marketing. Studios don’t greenlight films at that level without expectations of a $50 million — or likely, much higher — opening. All elements needed for a successful release have come together (including positive reviews); there’s no reason to believe the original calculations were too high.
Faulty Tracking
Tracking is one reason for the sub-$50 million projections, but the key factor is asking for the first choice among a range of future films — which would include upcoming titles like “Deadpool & Wolverine” (a formidable alternative). Indiewire’s sources include two who, as of two weeks ago, projected $80 million or morefor “Twisters.” Probably optimistic at this point, but it reflects the film’s higher expectations.
