The projections game for November’s U.S./Canada box office is easier than next Tuesday’s election. But after October results far off earlier predictions, some caution is advisable
This century before Covid, November always was a $1 billion or better grossing month, including some adjusted for current ticket prices. Last year’s November was an anemic $552 million.
The lineup this year includes three anticipated blockbusters that could play through Christmas — “Wicked” (Universal) and “Gladiator 2” (Paramount) opening November 22, and “Moana 2” (Disney) on November 27. Their release dates will mean half or more of their grosses could come later.
The just-ending October was expected to be the third consecutive month with improvements over 2023 results. Instead, October 2024 will fall close to 20 percent below last year’s.
That’s over $100 million less. The reason? Simple. Mostly because “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) is ending up around $60 million. That’s below what the first weekend was expected to bring in. Then, add in the lesser but still significant shortfall for the opening of “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony) last weekend, and what looked like an easy $600 million October will end up close to $450 million.
Most likely, “The Wild Robot” (Universal) will end up the biggest domestic release of the month, with $113 million so far (“Venom” will ultimately be bigger worldwide). Horror sleeper “Terrifier 3” (Cineverse/Iconic) and Paramount’s “Smile 2” are over $40 million so far, adding to positive results (though the latter won’t get near the original’s $110 million).
This November should be significantly better than last year (it would be catastrophic if not), but $1 billion is unrealistic despite the three likely giant films — in part related to the election.
Normally, the first two weeks of the month have at least one potential smash. In recent years, these included “Black Panther,” “The Marvels,” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” among many others. More so when Veterans Day (always November 11) falls on a Monday, as it does this year.
Instead, the first two weeks see Robert Zemeckis’ “Here” (Sony) this Friday, and “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” (Lionsgate) and “Heretic” (A24) on November 8 going wide. None is projected to open above $10 million.
Apart from ongoing release schedule weakness (lagging impact of last year’s strikes) and the preference of opening closer to Thanksgiving (which increases the chances of extending through the end of the year), one specific factor this year is playing a role.
That’s the election. Normally, the quadrennial event has no impact. But as in other more broadly significant ways, this year is different.
Distributors IndieWire has spoken to aren’t sure how half the population will feel the weekend after the election. Though it might be an excuse for escapism (theaters did fine the weekend after the Kennedy assassination in 1963), in terms of being a priority or even getting media attention, moviegoing could be more of a problem than usual.
Though it’s worked out so far, Focus curiously and surprisingly went from a platform release for “Conclave” on November 8 to a wide one last Friday. Their first two weeks might gross as much as $15 million by then. Now, the papal thriller will have less competition and already be established.
Things improve November 15 with “Red One” (Amazon/MGM), the reportedly $250 million action comedy with Dwayne Johnson out to rescue a kidnapped Santa Clause. It is expected to open over $30 million, with a clear upside, then could stabilize over the following two weeks. Ultimately, it can’t be ruled out as a fourth $100 million eventual domestic grosser.
The “Wicked“/”Gladiator 2” dual opening on November 22 could be reminiscent of the “Barbie”/”Oppenheimer” date in July last year. Both films are expected to open over $75 million on their way to potentially massive worldwide totals. (“Wicked” is generally expected to be higher.)
Then comes “Moana 2” the following Wednesday, in the typical Disney Thanksgiving animated feature slot. Online ticket seller Fandango announced its opening day advance sales outpaced “Inside Out 2,” which is the biggest hit of the year.
These four films combined should gross over $450 million by November 30, again with a real chance for more. That is likely a majority of the month’s take. Of the four top releases, “Wicked” and “Gladiator 2” have been screened to strong initial response, which makes their projections stronger than overly optimistic ones last month.
$800 million (and that is hopefully conservative) would be more than 50 percent better than last November. Year-to-date grosses have fallen to around 12 percent under 2023. If projections hold, that could fall to around seven percent after Thanksgiving weekend.
