With “Moana 2,” Disney’s Wednesday-opening animated sequel leading the way with a $221 million five-day total, U.S./Canada theaters saw attendance that came close to the highest for the holiday this century. That’s about the biggest boost for the health of the theatrical-release model since COVID-related theater closures.
The three-day weekend total of over $272 million fell just short of best for the year (that came with “Deadpool & Wolverine” opening in late July), but the $150 million for Wednesday and Thursday made for a five-day total of $420 million, unseen (adjusted) since the same period in 2012. That year, seven films grossed over $20 million (about $32 million at current ticket prices), compared to three this year.
As a result, year to date domestic box office totals have now dropped to below seven percent behind 2023. That’s a big improvement, aided by a comparison to last Thanksgiving (which was only $173 million). We may see 2024 reach $8.5 billion, far ahead of what seemed possible a few months ago.
“Wicked” (Universal) and “Gladiator 2” (Paramount), both in their second weekends, made big contributions to the result, along with a decent showing for the third weekend of “Red One” (Amazon MGM).
In terms of unadjusted grosses, $420 million for five days is a record. Adjusted, 2012 came in around $440 million. However, with a larger number of children’s tickets led by “Moana 2,” actual attendance (and with it, more concessions sales) looks like the best possible result.
Though Thanksgiving is a traditional launchpad for Disney cartoon features, response to “Moana 2” is phenomenal. Its predecessor, released the same date in 2016, had a total domestic gross of $248 million (about $345 million at today’s ticket prices). That will easily be surpassed, with a chance of Christmas play taking this substantially over $500 million. And that’s with tepid reviews, unlike many of top Disney animated titles.
And it came in the face of strong competition from “Wicked 2.” In 10 days, Jon Chu’s musical is already at $262 million and will likely gross a half billion domestic. In terms of adjusted gross, that would place it among the top five Broadway musical movie adaptations ever (“The Sound of Music,” at around $1.5 billion, will never be challenged). Its $80 million gross was only a 29 percent drop, boosted by what was effectively a holiday Friday.
“Gladiator II,” just under $31 million for the three-day weekend, fell 44 percent. It is at $111 million for 10 days domestic. Worldwide (mostly opening a week earlier), it has reached $320 million. That’s strong, with the only caveat that with Paramount’s investment (production and marketing) as much as $400 million, this will need uncertain Christmas playtime to make its money back.
No such issues for “Moana 2” and “Wicked,” both with pre-marketing reported production costs of around $150 million. Both films have so far drawn less internationally (“Moana 2” at $387 million, “Wicked” $359 million), but certainly well enough to boost into substantial profit.
Neither “Red One” nor “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” (Lionsgate), the #4 and #5 titles, were as impressive, but both had tiny drops. Dwayne Johnson’s action comedy (he also voices a “Moana” character) dropped only 2 percent in its third weekend and grossed $76 million through its third weekend. “Pageant” fell 4 percent for a $33 million total so far.
The holiday often sees elevated awards-contending platform releases. However, with the huge seating demand at key New York/Los Angeles theaters (with fewer options and more reliance on top AMC locations), it becomes harder to get the multiple screens to maximize critical initial grosses.
Two of the more highly anticipated specialized releases did debut. Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer” (A24) with Daniel Craig grossed $295,000 for five days in seven New York/Los Angeles theaters ($189,000 for three). Mohammad Rasoulof’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon), a Cannes prize winner and made in secret in Iran, took in $50,000 in three theaters ($33,000 for three days).
Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain” (Searchlight) slipped back into the top 10 with $650,000 and a $6.1 million total. “Conclave” (Focus), just out on PVOD and #1 at iTunes, crossed $30 million in the U.S./Canada. “Anora” (Neon) is at $12.7 million. “Flow” (Janus/Sideshow) continued at two initial theaters with a decent $28,000 second weekend.
Top 10(3 day weekend)
1.Moana 2 (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic: 57; Est. budget: $150 million
$135,500,000 in 4,200 theaters; PTA: $32,262; Cumulative: $221,000,000
2. Wicked (Universal) Week 2; Last weekend #1
$80,000,000 (-29%) in 3,888 (no change) theaters; PTA: $20,876; Cumulative: $262,420,000
3. Gladiator II (Paramount) Week 2; Last weekend #2
$30,700,000 (-44%) in 3,580 (+7) theaters; PTA: $8,575; Cumulative: $111,208,000
4. Red One (Amazon MGM) Week 3; Last weekend #3
$12,896,000 (-2%) in 3,344 (-688) theaters; PTA: $3,758; Cumulative: $76,056,000
5. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) Week 4; Last weekend #6
$3,275,000 (-4%) in 1,779 (-500) theaters; PTA: $1,841; Cumulative: $32,000,000
6. Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. (Angel) Week 2; Last weekend #4
$2,404,000 (-52%) in 1,800 (-100) theaters; PTA: $1,335; Cumulative: $9,748,000
7. Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) Week 6; Last weekend #5
$2,200,000 (-43%) in 1,716 (-842) theaters; PTA: $1,282; Cumulative: $137,863,000
8. Heretic (A24) Week 4; Last weekend #7
$956,797 (-57%) in 800 (-822) theaters; PTA: $1,450; Cumulative: $26,821,000
9. The Wild Robot (Universal)Week 10; Last weekend #8; also on PVOD
$670,000 (-68%) in 883 (-1,227) theaters; PTA: $759; Cumulative: $142,490,000
10. A Real Pain (Searchlight) Week 5; Last weekend #11
$665,000 (-39%) in in 505 (-680) theaters; PTA: $1,317; Cumulative: $6,121,000
Other specialized/independent titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed.Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recordedwhen available.
Queer (A24) NEW – Metacritic: 74; Festivals include: Venice, Toronto, New York 2024
$188,808 in 7 theaters; PTA: $26,973; Cumulative (five day): $295,518
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon) NEW – Metacritic: 85; Festivals include: Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, New York 2024
$33,000 in 3 theaters; PTA: $11,000; Cumulative: (five day) $50,000
Heavier Trip (Music Box) NEW – Festivals include: Hamburg 2024
$10,000 in 15 theaters; PTA: $666
Flow (Janus/Sideshow) Week 2
$28,900 in 2 (no change) theaters; PTA: $14,450; Cumulative: $98,887
Porcelain War (Picturehouse) Week 3
$9,941 in 2 (+1) theaters; PTA: $3,314; Cumulative: $24,620
All We Imagine as Light (Janus/Sideshow) Week 3
$65,000 in 26 (+7) theaters; Cumulative: $237,963
Small Things Like These (Roadside Attractions) Week 4
$28,550 in 42 (-28) theaters; Cumulative: $1,455,000
Conclave (Focus) Week 6; also on PVOD
$580,000 in 423 (-590) theaters; Cumulative: $30,100,000
Anora (Neon) Week 7
$360,000 in 230 (-270) theaters; Cumulative: $12,722,000
We Live in Time (A24) Week 8; also on PVOD
$39,729 in 72 (-191) theaters; Cumulative: $24,625,000
