Here’s how we know December is likely to gross over $1 billion: in its first eight days through the upcoming weekend, “Moana 2” (Disney), “Wicked” (Universal), and “Gladiator II” (Paramount) will likely combine to take in around $225 million in U.S./Canada box office.
That’s a full weekend plus Sunday through Thursday after Thanksgiving. The three films through Sunday will have grossed over $700 million — all told through then, most of it for “Moana 2” and “Wicked,” both over $300 million by next Sunday.
Those two are certain to hold most of their theaters through Christmas, where their family appeal should rebound. Ridley Scott’s film will still have some juice left. It’s reasonable that combined all three will gross over $500 million during December.
If they do, it should help push the month over $1 billion (a normal expectation for December before Covid, even at lower ticket prices than now). And that would happen even though none of the new Christmas titles is expected to come close to recent seasonal blockbusters like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” or “Avatar: The Way of Water,” both of which ultimately grossed nearly $700 million or more domestically.
Whatever happens, this year won’t reach 2023’s U.S./Canada box office total of $9.1 billion. But with $1 billion or more for the month, it would end up around $8.8 billion, less than 4 percent off from last year.
That’s a major improvement over what looked, at summer’s end, like a possible shortfall of around 10 percent. None of this comes close to pre-Covid grosses, much less attendance levels. But it is a huge positive step, at a minimum giving studios incentive to keep producing new films after a period of questions about the viability of the traditional production and release model.
November’s box office of around $900 million was up 16 percent from 2023. Still, the month before 2000 often grossed that much, always in adjusted ticket pricing. Again, positive movement, but hardly back to normal yet.
The top new releases will follow the family-friendly lead of “Moana 2” and “Wicked.” One worry about the top films is that the December 20 opening “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney) and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount) are both animated (the former photorealistically, and also a musical, will make five total animated and/or family titles around. “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros. Division) opening December 13 is the fifth.
Too much and not enough alternatives? Again, the totals should be fine, but it does show a pronounced absence of films aimed at prime audiences from late teens into their 30s.
“Mufasa,” directed by Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”), and the “Sonic” sequel both should gross over $100 million by year’s end, potentially much more. They look to be the main contributors among new films.
Apart from the animated “Lord of the Rings” entry, the oft-delayed “Kraken the Hunter,” another Sony Marvel offering opens on December 13. Neither film is expected to open to over $20 million, in part because typically that date is often an off weekend. Christmas playtime could boost both, but both are unlikely to reach $75 million.
The leaner release schedule opened the way for the unusual placement of four films with specialized pedigree or from top specialized distributors on December 25. In past years, these might have been platformed, or otherwise avoided opening Christmas Day.
Among these, Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu” (Focus) could have the biggest crossover appeal. Not only is it getting excellent reviews (83 on Metacritic so far), it also should be able to draw horror fans.
Searchlight has James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” with Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan, A24 “Babygirl” with Nicole Kidman, with both leads considered likely Oscar nominees. “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) is the directorial debut of cinematographer Rachel Morrison, telling the story of a female Olympic boxer (written by Barry Jenkins). (“A Complete Unknown” will be elevated by a one-week IMAX play on December 18, ahead of its wide release).
All follow the lead of “Conclave” (Focus), which successfully skipped platform and went straight to wide release. It benefitted from limited competition from other more mature audience films. All, though, have the incentive of opening when adult moviegoing interest is at its highest.
December 6 openers “Y2K” (A24), “The Return” (Bleecker Street), “Werewolves” (Briarcliff), and the anime “Solo Level: Rewakening” (Sony) will add only a little to the month. Angel’s “Homestead,” a faith-based post-apocalyptic film, opening on December 20 is a wild card.
Platform or limited initial releases — including “The Brutalist” (A24), “Nickel Boys” (Amazom MGM), “The End” (Neon), “Nightbitch” (Searchlight), “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber), “September 5” (Paramount), “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics), and “Better Man” (Paramount) — will mostly expand in January, with greater impact then.
