July box office beat all expectations with just under $1.2 billion. And it’s possible that August could provide a sequel: June and July titles may provide half or more of the August total, even though the month will see 10 new wide studio releases and several notables from leading independent distributors.
Our July projection was $1 billion with the potential for more. It had 2023’s close to $1.4 billion in comparison, but with fewer new films (ongoing delays related to last year’s strikes), competing with “Barbie”/”Oppenheimer,” and no sign of a sleeper like last year’s “Sound of Freedom,” $1 billion seemed reasonable.
Instead, four films grossed about $900 million during the month, led by “Despicable Me 4” (Universal) with just shy of $300 million after 30 days, just ahead of the new “Deadpool” (which will be over $280 million). “Twisters” (Universal) will add close to $170 million, with “Inside Out 2” (Disney) adding about $145 million to its June haul.
Disney’s top two (really, the main two) content providers — Marvel and animation, particularly embattled Pixar — returned in top form. The “Deadpool” and “Inside Out” will battle it out for the #1 release of 2024. Both are nearly certain to see better domestic results than last year’s #1, “Barbie” ($636 million).
If “Deadpool” heads to $600 million or more, most of its additional haul would come in August. It’s possible that it could gross $300 million or more this month — as much or more than the month’s new wide releases.
August is the least desirable of the four summer months to release a new film (some schools reopening, family vacations at this time, football on TV) and holdover grosses in September are less appealing. However, other than 2020 (when theaters were closed), every August since 2005 has provided at least one new release that ultimately grossed over $100 million (even earlier, adjusted to current prices).
This year may be the exception. With fewer top films, studios placed their titles within the May-July period. What’s left are mostly mid-level productions with more originals than usual, sometimes rescheduled from earlier dates. However, none appear likely to pass $75 million for its full run. Only a few optimistically look at $40 million-$60 million results, which means holdovers will need to save the month.
The contenders in a weak field are M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller “Trap” (Warner Bros.) this Friday, Eli Roth’s videogame adaptation “Borderlands” (Lionsgate) and best-seller adaptation “It Ends with Us” (Sony) August 9, and “Alien: Romulus” (Disney) August 16. The “Alien” sequel looks like the best bet for the top gross, better for having the best opening weekend.
It’s an unusual month for having multiple weeks with three or even four new wide titles. They include the not-well-reviewed children’s classic adaptation “Harold and the Purple Crayon” (Sony) this Friday, “The Crow” remake (Lionsgate), the Channing Tatum thriller “Blink Twice” (MGM Amazon), Sony’s “The Forge” from their faith-based partner Affirm (August 23), then Sony again with “Afraid” (August 30) seem more likely to be in the $20 million-$40 million range.
Unknowns can surprise and it could be a genius move to place a sleeper into a sleepy August. But these (along with a handful of other wide releases, with lower prospects) could struggle to gross $250 million during the month.
Because of the strength of the holdovers, the month still might end up not that far behind last year’s around $825 million. Apart from the Marvel smash (which is doing around $25 million weekdays initially), “Twisters,” “Despicable,” and “Inside” could add perhaps another $150 million more.
If the June and July trend of better-than-expected continues, $750 million seems closer to the likely result. If so, that would be only 10 percent behind last year (July will be about 14 percent lower). The year is still 19 percent of 2023.
The expectation remains that September-December, particularly the first two months containing “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” and “Joker: Folie à Deux” (both WB), will make the final third of the year decidedly better than 2023. It still remains a longshot that $8 billion can be reached.
