Remember: it’s no longer the Hollywood Foreign Press. Much of that idiosyncratic group of 90 mostly white Hollywood correspondents is buried inside a new diverse list of 300 voters from 75 countries, 60 percent people of color. And most of them, unlike the core of international entertainment reporters based in Hollywood, are bonafide film critics. (What’s left of the original HFPA members draw a $75,000 annual salary; the rest do not.)

Now, while the press conferences dreaded by talent are no more, Globe members in New York, L.A., and London are happily getting invites to FYC events again. (The Golden Globes are owned by Dick Clark Productions and Eldridge. IndieWires parent company, Penske Media, subsequently acquired Dick Clark Productions in a joint venture with Eldridge.)

And thus the old awards ecosystem, with the writers and actors strikes resolved, is up and running. No question, studios and streamers campaigning for Oscars consider the Globes an essential cog in the machine. Get in the race, and you can campaign. Win, and your speech can go viral.

Thing is, the HFPA used to veer from calling the Oscars correctly — when Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” (2017) nabbed seven Golden Globe nominations and went on to win the Best Picture Oscar — to whiffing, as when Steven Spielberg’s “The Post” walked away with six Globe nominations — and barely notched two mentions at the Oscars, for Picture and Meryl Streep. (This year, the actress broke her Globes record of 33 nominations, landing a TV nod for “Only Murders in the Building.”)

The HFPA has always favored Spielberg: last year he nabbed five Globe nominations and won Best Drama and Director for “The Fabelmans,” which went on to seven Oscar nods including Picture and Director, but no wins.

But those old assumptions no longer fly. Yes, Jennifer Lawrence landed a Comedy Actress nomination for “No Hard Feelings,” but who else were they going to nominate? The categories are the same, which means you can comb through the Drama and Comedy nominees and pick out the ones that might make it to the Oscar announcement on January 23, 2024.

NO HARD FEELINGS, Jennifer Lawrence, 2023. ph: Macall Polay / © Sony Pictures Entertainment / Courtesy Everett Collection
“No Hard Feelings”©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

The trick this year is to regard the Globes as a critics group, for real. (That nomination for Alma Pöysti, star of Finnish Oscar entry “Fallen Leaves,” is a dead giveaway.) And as such, while the winning speeches on the show itself, which will air on CBS and Paramount+ on January 7, 2024, will have some impact on Oscar voters filling out their ballots January 11-16, these 300 voters are hardly predictive. (Stick around for the SAG nominations on January 17, 2024.)

The Globes can add momentum, however. On the comedy side, first-time director nominee Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) leads the field with nine nominations. Like director nominee Christopher Nolan’s drama “Oppenheimer,” which landed eight nods, “Barbie” landed in the new box office category for movies grossing more than $150 million (with a minimum $100-million domestic).

Getting a lift from the the box office as well as the Globes was Yorgos Lanthimos’ new opener “Poor Things” (Searchlight), which landed seven nominations, including director Lanthimos, writer Tony McNamara, and stars Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe.

POOR THINGS, Emma Stone, 2023. © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
“Poor Things”©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

Also with seven nods was Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple/Paramount) which is steady as they go with nods for Director, Screenplay, and actors Leonardo DiCaprio, Actress frontrunner Lily Gladstone, and Robert De Niro.

Also gaining a surprising seven slots was director nominee Celine Song’s critics’ fave “Past Lives.” Distributor A24 also scored three nods for “The Zone of Interest,” including Drama, Non-English Language, and Original Score (Mica Levi), although Jonathan Glazer did not land a directing or screenplay nod.

Building steam with four nods apiece were dramas “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon), “Maestro” (Netflix), and comedy “May December” (Netflix), although only Bradley Cooper landed in Director (as well as Drama Actor). That also happened on his “A Star Is Born.” “The Holdovers” (Focus) scored three, including Comedy, Comedy Actor (Paul Giamatti), and Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), who is the one to beat for the Oscar.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph in "The Holdovers"
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers”Focus Features

Even with extra comedy and drama categories, the HFPA made some omissions Monday morning. They included possible Best Musical nominee “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.), which only landed acting nominations for Fantasia Barrino and Danielle Brooks, as well as possible Best Drama nominee “Saltburn” (Amazon/MGM), which also scored two acting nods, for Barry Keoghan and Rosamund Pike. (The Emerald Fennell movie might have fared better as a comedy.)

Musical “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) only scored one nod, for star Timothée Chalamet. The Globes voters ignored two sports dramas, Sean Durkin’s “The Iron Claw” (A24) and Michael Mann’s “Ferrari” (Neon).

And Joaquin Phoenix gained a nomination, not for Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” (Apple/Sony), but for A24 comedy “Beau Is Afraid.” That’s a movie the old HFPA would never have mentioned in a million years.

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