The Golden Globe nominations, like last week’s awards groups that showcased “A Different Man” (A24), “Wicked” (Universal), “The Brutalist” (A24), and “Anora” (Neon), point awards voters toward the movies they need to watch. In the awards race, seeing is believing.
While the most predictive awards are still to come — the guilds — the recently expanded Golden Globes voters (300) lean international, and the results of that bias are clear, as Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) dominated their nominations with 10, following the Cannes prize-winner’s five wins at Saturday’s European Film Awards. And A24’s Venice director-winner, Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” which earned seven Globe nods, is arguably as European as they come.
Other international films getting a boost include English-language French horror flick “The Substance” (Mubi) which won Best Screenplay at Cannes, earned four European Film Award nominations (winning two for cinematography and VFX), and earned Comedy Globe slots for Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley and writer-director Coralie Fargeat.
She joined another woman auteur on that list, Payal Kapadia, whose Cannes prize-winner “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus/Sideshow) landed yet another nomination for Best International Film. The well-reviewed drama (95 on Metacritic), which picked up key wins last week from the Gothams and the New York Film Critics Circle, was not submitted by India for the Oscars.
Turning up on the Globes’ Best Motion Picture, Drama list was Swiss filmmaker Tim Fehlbaum’s English-language ticking clock thriller “September 5” (Paramount), starring a taut ensemble led by John Magaro and Peter Sarsgaard, which has been largely overlooked by awards groups thus far, picking up an editing nomination from the Indie Spirits.
Parsing the Globes always means not only factoring in their extra Musical/Comedy and Box Office categories, but that they allot six nominations each rather than the Oscars’ five. Go through the list and you can figure that many of the more snobby Oscar voters may not check out the horrific “The Substance” or “Nightbitch” (Searchlight), which earned a Comedy acting slot for Amy Adams. And while they may have enjoyed “Challengers,” Luca Guadagnino’s romantic triangle set in the tennis world, they may not deem it “serious” enough.
Among the Musical/Comedy actresses, Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”) will likely earn Oscar placement, while none of the Musical/Comedy actors are top Oscar contenders, unless “A Real Pain” multi-hyphenate Jesse Eisenberg slips in. He’s more likely to score an Original Screenplay nod, along with Fargeat; both landed Globe Screenplay slots.
On the other hand five of the six Male Drama nominees should move on to Oscar consideration — Adrien Brody, (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Daniel Craig (“Queer”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — while the presumed sixth slot, Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”) may not. That political movie fared better in Europe than stateside.
Of the Female Drama nominees, past Oscar-winners Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) could take the remaining two Oscar slots, leaving out Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”), and Kate Winslet (“Lee”). All are deserving! It’s beyond competitive this year. The weekend’s big Actress winner (the LA FIlm Critics and British Independent Film Awards), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths,” Bleecker) could slip in there.
Among the Globe Director nominees, four should proceed to Oscar nominations: Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Edward Berger (Focus’ “Conclave”) and Corbet (“The Brutalist”). The Oscars should add Denis Villeneuve (Warners’ “Dune: Part Two”), who landed a Drama slot but not Director.
Luckily the Oscars offer 10 Best Picture slots. So which Globes nominees get in? The most likely Comedy/Musical nominees: “Anora,” “Emilia Perez,” “A Real Pain,” and “Wicked,” leaving out “The Substance” and “Challengers.” The most likely Drama nominees: “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Nickel Boys” and “September 5.” Also competing for the tenth BP slot is “Sing Sing,” which only landed one Globe acting nomination, for Domingo. And just maybe, enough voters will see the wisdom of including “All We Imagine as Light.”
